Pandemic is likely to surge further in mid-May: Niti Aayog

Covid-19 cases in the country are likely to be peaked in mid-May and may subside by June-July, Niti Aayog member (health) VK Paul, who heads a key Central panel, said while speaking at a chief ministers meeting convened by PM Narendra Modi. The Niti Ayog’s warning has come amid the severe second wave of infection in the country.

The key points flagged during the meeting were “heavily populated states are at particular risk; and, health infrastructure in states is not adequate enough to cope with the present serious scenario,” an India Today report said.

According to the report, Uttar Pradesh would report the highest daily cases number in India by April 30 at 119,604, the projections read. This would be followed by Maharashtra at 99,665 and Delhi at 67,134. Clearly, the state of Uttar Pradesh is projected to outrun the others in the Covid-19 tally.

The daily shortage of isolation beds with oxygen in Uttar Pradesh has been projected at around 16,752. ICU beds would fall short by 3,061 and at least 1,538 ventilators would be required, the report said.

In Delhi as well, the city would be short of 16,061 oxygen beds daily, 2877 ICU beds and 1450 ventilators. Delhi is already reeling under a massive oxygen shortage, with hospitals begging for oxygen for critical patients.

Delhi’s oxygen demand has been for 700 MT of liquified medical grade oxygen, while the Centre has upgraded the demand to 48 MT only.

The presentation also details the government’s efforts to augment the supply of liquid medical oxygen and remdesivir. The availability of oxygen has been increased by 3,300 metric tonnes per day. It states. “India has 1,172 oxygen tankers (16,732 MT capacity)efforts [on] to increase to more than 2,000.”

“Guidelines have been formulated on oxygen requirementNeed for further dissemination and implementation of the guidelines at the hospital level,” it says.

These high-burden states like Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Delhi and Chattisgarh have been told to categorise areas based on high, moderate, and low surges, based on their geographical and density of population distribution.

The Centre has recommended that districts showing a high surge of Covid-19 cases could implement a lockdown and ramp up the healthcare infrastructure at breakneck speed.

On remdesivir, it states: “With growing demand, production ramp-up started in March from a level of 27.44 lakh vials per month towards 74.10 lakh vials per month in May. About 49.07 lakh vials have been delivered across the country” from March 1-22.”

The Union health ministry’s official data shows that after Maharashtra, which had more than 6.85 lakh active cases, Uttar Pradesh ranked second last week with 2.23 lakh cases.

Uttar Pradesh on Saturday recorded its highest single-day spike in new infections and coronavirus-related deaths with 38,055 fresh cases and 223 fatalities, pushing the virus tally to 10,51,314 and the toll to 10,959, according to an official statement.

Of the new fatalities due to Covid-19, Lucknow recorded a maximum of 42, followed by Prayagraj, which recorded 15 deaths. Kanpur registered 13 deaths, while Agra saw 11 deaths. Varanasi and Ghaziabad recorded 10 deaths each, the UP government said in a statement issued.